GPW swing screen — Thursday 5 November 2026 (1-month horizon)
Data: biznesradar.pl, 50 sessions (26/27 Aug–4 Nov 2026). Closes from 4 Nov for WIG20, WIG, mWIG40, LPP, DNP, CDR, ACP, KTY, OPL, TPE, GPW, ASB, DOM, MRB, PKN, XTB, KRU, CBF. For MBK, BFT, ALE, BDX, CAR, PCO, PGE, PKO, PEO, PZU, ALR, ENA, APR, 11B, MIL, CPS, sWIG80 the source/buffer returned data only through 3 Nov (JSW and KGH: KGH through 3 Nov, JSW through 2 Nov) — marked "(3 Nov)" in the table. Morning prices of 5 Nov are stale and are not given. Dividends adjusted: LPP −500 (ex 8 Oct), BFT −100 (ex approx. 4 Sep); PZU (PLN 4.80, dividend day 17 Sep) not adjusted — PZU indicators understated by approx. 6%. 33 companies + 4 indices scanned.
TOP 3 right now
- Price
- 26,580
- Entry
- 25,900–26,300
- Stop
- 25,150
- Targets T1 / T2
- 27,250 / 28,300
- R
- 1.2 / 2.3
- Price
- 1,610 (3 Nov)
- Entry
- 1,525–1,575
- Stop
- 1,470
- Targets T1 / T2
- 1,700 / 1,800
- R
- 1.9 / 3.1
- Price
- 58.36 (3 Nov)
- Entry
- 56.0–57.0
- Stop
- 54.30
- Targets T1 / T2
- 60.30 / 63.00
- R
- 1.7 / 3.0
Market regime
- GPW, 4 Nov: WIG20 4,190.08 (+1.24%), WIG 158,141 (+1.47%), mWIG40 10,728 (+2.3%). WIG20 reclaimed EMA20 (4,193) and SMA20 (4,204 — practically at them), is above SMA50 (4,154); RSI 52, 2.2% below the high. mWIG40 above SMA20 and SMA50 (RSI 52). sWIG80 (through 3 Nov) weak: 29,347, −7.9% from the high, below SMA20 and SMA50, RSI 26 — small caps are not participating in the rebound.
- Breadth: of the 33 scanned companies 16 are above SMA50, 14 above EMA20. The 4 Nov rebound was broad (banks +1.5–2%, WIG-Banki +1.81% per Parkiet), but after three down sessions (~3.5–4%) it is only a return to the averages, not a new impulse.
- Sectors: leaders — retail/e-commerce/consumer (LPP, ALE, BFT, DNP, CAR), telecom (OPL, new high), mBank after results. Laggards — commodities/metals (KGH −27% from the high, JSW −33%), fuels (PKN 7 down sessions, −13.7%), speculative financials (XTB −30%, KRU −20%), Polsat (−32%), gaming/IT (11B, −14%).
- US (close 4 Nov, AP): S&P 500 7,688.62 (+1.6%), Nasdaq 25,736.51 (+1.4%), Dow 53,356 (+3.0%), Russell 2000 2,856.95 (+1.6%); broad rally approx. 3:1 after the midterm elections; semiconductors −3.1%. Position relative to SMA50/200 — unavailable in the sources.
- VIX 16.61 (−20% from 20.83). UST 10Y 4.89%. Brent USD 94.62 (−8.7%), 2-month lows. COMEX copper USD 6.41/lb (one source; LME unavailable). USD/PLN 3.896, EUR/PLN 4.3864 (money.pl 5 Nov 07:00, market rates, not the NBP table).
- Macro: MPC (RPP) 4 Nov — rates unchanged (reference rate 3.75%), next meeting 2 Dec; Poland CPI flash for Oct: 3.5% y/y (Sep: 4.1%); Fed 3.75–4.00%, FOMC 8–9 Dec, market pricing approx. 81% odds of a hike in December; ECB deposit rate 2.50%. On the calendar: Fri 6 Nov US payrolls (consensus +65k), Tue 10 Nov US CPI. Sources: AP, CappNotes, Parkiet, finwire RPP, money.pl.
- Takeaway: neutral-constructive environment, better than 4 Nov (rebound on global risk-on, VIX 16.6, falling yields and oil). Constraints: the index is only back at its averages, sWIG80 is weak, PKO and Dino report today, payrolls on Friday, and Fed tightening is priced in the background. I prefer limit entries on pullbacks in leaders, positions of approx. 60–80% of standard size, hard stops; no chasing today's open.
Ranking (R from the midpoint of the entry zone)
| # | Tic | Company | Sector | Price | From high | Trend | Support | RSI | Fund/30 | Tech/70 | Total | Class | Entry | Stop | T1 | T2 | R (T1 / T2) | Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LPP | LPP | apparel/retail | 26,580 | −2.4% | uptrend (SMA20 26,402 > SMA50 24,011) | 25,740–26,190 (4 Nov low, EMA20 26,192) | 60 | 25 | 49 | 74 | A/B (rejection candle 4 Nov; limit on a pullback) | 25,900–26,300 | 25,150 | 27,250 | 28,300 | 1.2 / 2.3 | 3 Dec |
| 2 | MBK | mBank | banks | 1,610 (3 Nov) | −3.5% | uptrend after the gap (SMA20 1,476 > SMA50 1,452) | 1,525–1,575 (inside the 28 Oct gap) | 62 | 22 | 49 | 71 | B (gap retest) | 1,525–1,575 | 1,470 | 1,700 | 1,800 | 1.9 / 3.1 | none (results 28 Oct) |
| 3 | ALE | Allegro | e-commerce | 58.36 (3 Nov) | −2.7% | uptrend (SMA20 56.4 > SMA50 51.0) | 56.0–57.0 (EMA20 56.65 / SMA20 56.4) | 64 | 23 | 45 | 68 | B (limit on a pullback) | 56.0–57.0 | 54.30 | 60.30 | 63.00 | 1.7 / 3.0 | 12 Nov (7 days!) |
| 4 | BFT | Benefit Systems | services | 5,900 (3 Nov) | −1.3% | uptrend (SMA20 5,710 > SMA50 5,380) | 5,700–5,800 (EMA20 5,731) | 65 | 22 | 43 | 65 | B (retest) | 5,700–5,800 | 5,520 | 6,050 | 6,350 | 1.3 / 2.6 | 19 Nov (14 days — at the edge of the window) |
| 5 | CDR | CD Projekt | gaming | 264.00 | −2.9% | sideways-up (SMA20 264.2 > SMA50 250.9) | 258–262 (SMA20 retest) / 250.5–252.6 (SMA50, 3–4 Nov lows) | 55 | 21 | 43 | 64 | A/B (4 Nov engulfing off SMA50) | 258–262 | 248.5 | 272.9 | 285.0 | 1.1 / 2.2 | 24 Nov (19 days) |
| 6 | DNP | Dino Polska | grocery | 38.34 | −3.3% | uptrend (SMA20 37.9 > SMA50 36.3) | 37.3–37.9 (EMA20 37.74) | 58 | 18 | 45 | 63 | B — after earnings | 37.3–37.9 | 36.30 | 39.65 | 41.50 | 1.6 / 3.0 | 5 Nov (TODAY) |
| 7 | BDX | Budimex | construction | 734.60 (3 Nov) | −0.8% (no pullback) | uptrend (SMA20 705 > SMA50 703) | 705–716 (SMA20/EMA20 709) | 58 | 20 | 40 | 60 | C (retest) | 705–716 | 668 | 749 | 780 | 0.9 / 1.6 | reported (27 Oct) |
| 8 | CAR | Inter Cars | automotive | 1,042 (3 Nov) | −2.1% | uptrend (SMA20 1,015 > SMA50 969) | 1,015–1,030 (EMA20 1,016) | 61 | 21 | 38 | 59 | C | 1,015–1,030 | 960 | 1,076 | 1,120 | 0.9 / 1.6 | 17 Nov (12 days) |
| 9 | ACP | Asseco Poland | IT | 237.60 | −5.3% | uptrend (SMA20 237.1 > SMA50 231.3) | 232–237 (SMA20/SMA50) | 48 | 19 | 38 | 57 | B trigger/C | 232–237 | 226 | 250 | 258 | 1.8 / 2.8 | 26 Nov (21 days) |
| 10 | PCO | Pepco Group | retail | 48.13 (3 Nov) | −5.6% | uptrend (SMA20 47.0 > SMA50 44.5) | 47.2–48.0 (EMA20 47.31) | 57 | 15 | 41 | 56 | C | 47.2–48.0 | 45.00 | 51.00 | 53.50 | 1.3 / 2.3 | n/a (the company publishes trading updates, fiscal year ends in September) |
Charts from the ranking
Score ranking
Total points split into fundamentals and the rest of the score (0–100).
Risk and reward map
Stop, entry zone and targets as a deviation from the last price (first 6 setups with a full set of levels).
Reward-to-risk
R to target 1 and target 2 measured from the middle of the entry zone; the framework prefers at least about 1:2.
R calculated from the midpoint of the entry zone. Earnings within 14 days: DNP (today), ALE (12 Nov), CAR (17 Nov, 12 days), BFT (19 Nov — exactly 14 days). The ranking has 10 positions (not 15) — deliberately: fewer than 15 names meet the criteria "trend + shallow/healthy pullback + support", and some of the candidates (BDX, CAR) have R to T1 below 1. Fund/30 for LPP, ALE, BFT, MBK, CDR, BDX, CAR refreshed on the latest reports (below); DNP, ACP, PCO — cautious estimate.
TOP 3 right now
- LPP — the strongest relative performer (+31% in 49 sessions, +8 pp vs WIG over 20 sessions), yesterday a rejection candle off EMA20 (low 25,740, close 26,580 at the high of the day), fundamentals after a surprisingly good Q2 — but R to T1 is only approx. 1.2, so a limit on a pullback only, not a chase.
- mBank — breakout from the gap after results, declining pullback volume (63→52→46→31k), no earnings until February and R of approx. 1.9 / 3.1 on a move down to half the gap; rating based on data through 3 Nov, because 4 Nov was an up day for banks.
- Allegro — trend and RS best in the group, 2026 guidance raised, shallow pullback to EMA20; the negative is the 12 Nov earnings (7 days), so a reduced position or entry only after the results.
Detailed analysis of the TOP 5
LPP — LPP
Why it is interesting
- Leader of strength: +31.5% in 49 sessions, RS +8.5 pp vs WIG over 20 sessions; the 18 Sep gap up after Q2 cleared the 21,000–22,000 base.
- Q2 of FY 2026/27: revenue PLN 6.58 bn (+18.4%), gross margin 57.7% (+3.7 pp), EBITDA PLN 1.74 bn (+46%), net profit PLN 768 m (+64.5%); gross margin guidance raised (56.5–57%) and EBITDA guidance raised (24–25%), net debt/EBITDA target lowered to 1.0, 2027 revenue plan PLN 30–31 bn (Parkiet, Strefa Inwestorów).
- Dividend of PLN 900 already cut off (last part PLN 500: last day with entitlement 6 Oct, payment 30 Oct) — the price made up the gap within a week.
- 4 Nov: candle with a long lower shadow (low 25,740 below the 3 Nov low, close 26,580 = high of the day), volume 4.0k shares (20-session average ~4.0k) — an attempt to defend EMA20.
Fundamentals — refreshed (Q2 of the FY, above). Valuation and consensus not verified in this run. Next earnings 3 Dec (beyond the entry horizon, but during the swing).
Technical structure — daily: higher lows since 18 Sep; high 27,240 (22 Oct), since then five lower daily highs (27,200 → 26,580 at the close); EMA20 26,192, SMA20 26,402, SMA50 24,011. RSI 60, MACD histogram −184 (momentum slowing, but not broken). Weekly trend assessed from daily closes (no separate weekly series): uptrend, 4 weeks of consolidation below 27,240.
Why the pullback — market-driven and technically healthy: profit-taking after +30% with no negative announcements; pullback volume is not rising.
Key support — 26,192 (EMA20), 25,740 (4 Nov low), 25,860 (3 Nov low), zone 25,260–25,660 (closes of 12–13 Oct after the dividend adjustment), 24,200 (8 Oct low after the adjustment).
Entry strategy
- Aggressive: limit 25,900–26,300 (EMA20 + 3–4 Nov lows), half position.
- Confirmed: close > 26,820 (3 Nov high) on volume > 4k; note: from this level R to T1 falls below 0.5 — this entry makes sense only for T2 after a breakout of 27,250.
- Ideal signal: close > 27,250 (new ATH) on volume > 5k, then a smaller position and stop 26,000.
Stop / invalidation — 25,150 (below the 3–4 Nov lows with a buffer of approx. 0.9 ATR; a close below means loss of the structure since 8 Oct). A close < 24,200 cancels the entire thesis.
Targets — T1 27,250 (ATH 27,240 from 22 Oct) → R approx. 1.2; T2 28,300 (base extension 24,200–27,240 ≈ +1,060 from the breakout) → R approx. 2.3.
Catalysts — holiday season and Back to School (double-digit revenue growth at the start of Q3 per management), earnings 3 Dec, forecast revisions.
Risks — (1) low R to T1 — entry only on a limit; (2) high price and thin share turnover (approx. 4k shares/day) → slippage; (3) change in sentiment toward retail amid Fed tightening/weak zloty; (4) 3 Dec earnings with a high bar after Q2; (5) deepening of the WIG20 pullback below 4,100.
Verdict: GOOD SETUP (limit in the zone only; entry at market — WAIT).
MBK — mBank
Why it is interesting
- Q3 (28 Oct): net profit PLN 1.085 bn (approx. +30% y/y, in line with consensus), NII PLN 2.67 bn (+6%, approx. 4% above forecasts), ROE 17.6%, ROTE 21.6%; management announced a return of the dividend from 2026 profit (30% of profit) (xyz.pl, Parkiet).
- Gap breakout on 28 Oct (1,485 → 1,611.5) and high 1,701 (29 Oct); pullback from the 1,667.5 close to 1,610 only 3.4%.
- Strongest bank: +15.7% in 49 sessions, +10 pp vs WIG over 20 sessions; no earnings until February 2027.
Fundamentals — refreshed after Q3 (as above). Downside: net provisions PLN 261 m, approx. 30% above consensus; legal risk of CHF loans still open. Debt/liquidity of the bank — not verified.
Technical structure — SMA20 1,476 > SMA50 1,452; price 9% above SMA20; RSI 62; MACD histogram +22.8 (positive, slightly declining). Volume: breakout 45.7 and 63.6k (2–3× the 20-session average of ~27k), then 52 → 46 → 31k — healthy fading of supply.
Why the pullback — profit-taking after the gap + weakness of the banking sector 30 Oct–3 Nov; on 4 Nov banks rebounded +1.5–2% (4 Nov price unavailable — MBK data through 3 Nov).
Key support — 1,575–1,583 (2–3 Nov lows), 1,525–1,550 (half of the gap), 1,484.5 (27 Oct close / bottom of the gap), 1,471 (28 Oct low), 1,452 (SMA50).
Entry strategy
- Aggressive: limit 1,560–1,575.
- Conservative: 1,525–1,550 (fill of half the gap) on declining volume.
- Ideal signal: rejection in the gap + close > previous session, or close > 1,667.5 on volume > 45k.
Stop / invalidation — 1,470 (below the 28 Oct low). A close in the gap below 1,485 = gap filled, thesis violated.
Targets — T1 1,700 (29 Oct high 1,701) → R approx. 1.9; T2 1,800 (extension of the gap move ~ +190 points) → R approx. 3.1.
Catalysts — recommendation revisions after results, sector improvement (yields down), dividend policy.
Risks — (1) the price after the 4 Nov bank rebound may already be above the zone — the limit may not fill; (2) provisions/CHF-loan case law; (3) unrealized rate cuts (MPC holding at 3.75%, but Pekao sees hikes in 2027 — two-sided impact on NII); (4) rejection of the 29 Oct high with a long shadow; (5) low liquidity in a pullback (31–63k shares).
Verdict: GOOD SETUP (entry only on a pullback).
ALE — Allegro
Why it is interesting
- Q2 2026: GMV PLN 19.6 bn (+14.4%), adjusted EBITDA PLN 1.03 bn (+11.5%), net profit PLN 529.3 m (+37%); 2026 guidance raised (GMV PLN 78.3–79.9 bn, adj. EBITDA PLN 3.9–4.1 bn) (Parkiet).
- Trend: +30% in 49 sessions, +15.5 pp vs WIG over 20 sessions; SMA20 56.4 > SMA50 51.0; high 60.31 (2 Nov).
- 3 Nov: −2.7% (59.60 → 58.36) on volume of 4.6 m (20-session average 4.5 m) — pullback without escalation of supply; earlier sessions with 6–7 m volume on rises.
Fundamentals — refreshed after Q2 (above). Net debt/EBITDA and dividend — unverified. Q3 report on 12 Nov.
Technical structure — higher lows (49.5 → 51.6 → 55.5 → 57.3); EMA20 56.65, SMA20 56.4. RSI 64 (healthily high), MACD histogram −0.07 (momentum past its peak, close to zero).
Why the pullback — market-driven (WIG −3.5% 29 Oct–3 Nov) and technical profit-taking after a new high. On 4 Nov Allegro was +2.4% intraday per Forsal (close unavailable) — if confirmed, the entry zone is approx. 5% away.
Key support — 56.65 (EMA20), 56.0–56.4 (SMA20), 55.5 (19 Oct low), 54.3 (below the lows of the week of 19 Oct), 51.0 (SMA50).
Entry strategy
- Aggressive: none (R from a 58–60 price to T1 < 1).
- Conservative: limit 56.0–57.0, half position, because earnings are in 7 days.
- Ideal signal: rejection at 56–57 and close > previous day, or — after the 12 Nov earnings — a gap up held above 60.3.
Stop / invalidation — 54.30 (below the 19 Oct low of 55.52 with a buffer). A close < 51 (SMA50) invalidates the trend.
Targets — T1 60.30 (ATH 2 Nov) → R approx. 1.7; T2 63.0 (extension of the 49.5 → 60.3 move by approx. 25%) → R approx. 3.0.
Catalysts — 12 Nov earnings, Black Friday/holiday season, raised EBITDA guidance.
Risks — (1) earnings in 7 days — gap in both directions; (2) rising yields and Fed tightening hit growth valuations; (3) the market has almost 100% priced in the good Q2 (+30%); (4) price competition in e-commerce (margins); (5) a shallower pullback than the zone — the entry may not occur.
Verdict: GOOD SETUP (with the earnings caveat; half position or entry after 12 Nov).
BFT — Benefit Systems
Why it is interesting
- Q2: revenue PLN 1,459.7 m (+33.4%), EBITDA PLN 459.1 m (+40.9%, margin 31.5%), net profit attributable to the parent PLN 222.2 m (+55.5%, +11% vs PAP consensus) (Strefa Inwestorów); DM BOŚ: slightly positive results.
- Breakout from the 6 Oct base and a +18% trend; RS +11 pp vs WIG over 20 sessions.
- Consolidation at 5,780–6,035 for three weeks with volume around the average (5.4k).
Fundamentals — refreshed after Q2. The price fell after the results despite their quality (Parkiet) — article text not read; net debt/EBITDA unverified. Earnings 19 Nov.
Technical structure — higher lows 5,225 → 5,410 → 5,565 → 5,780; SMA20 5,710 > SMA50 5,380; EMA20 5,731; RSI 65, MACD histogram +3.7 (down from +13.5 — fading impulse).
Why (no) pullback — this is consolidation below 6,035, not a pullback; a candidate only for a retest.
Key support — 5,710–5,731 (SMA20/EMA20), 5,565 (20 Oct low), 5,520 (closes of the week of 19 Oct), 5,380 (SMA50).
Entry strategy
- Aggressive: none (at 5,900 R to T1 ≈ 0.5).
- Conservative: limit 5,700–5,800.
- Confirmation: close > 6,035 on volume > 7k — smaller position, stop 5,800.
Stop / invalidation — 5,520; a close < 5,380 (SMA50) = return to the base.
Targets — T1 6,050 (high 6,035) → R approx. 1.3; T2 6,350 (base extension ~ +980 from 5,395) → R approx. 2.6.
Catalysts — earnings 19 Nov (14 days), growth in the number of cards/users (unverified).
Risks — (1) no pullback — the retest may not occur; (2) modest R to T1; (3) earnings at the edge of the swing window; (4) thin liquidity, slippage; (5) rotation out of consumer names amid higher yields.
Verdict: WAIT FOR CONFIRMATION (retest of 5,700–5,800 or breakout of 6,035 on volume).
CDR — CD Projekt
Why it is interesting
- Q2: revenue PLN 244.2 m (consensus 200.0), EBITDA PLN 161.4 m (110.1), net profit PLN 142.9 m (99.3, +44%), cash approx. PLN 1.29 bn (Strefa Inwestorów, ppcg).
- 4 Nov: +2.9% (256.5 → 264.0), low 252.6 at SMA50 250.9; close above the previous day's high (256.9) = bullish engulfing after two sessions testing SMA50.
- +12.8% in 49 sessions; last week's trigger (close > 262) fired.
Fundamentals — refreshed after Q2; dividend and valuation details unverified. Narrative catalysts: Witcher 4 (the market is "waiting"), 24 Nov earnings.
Technical structure — price ≈ SMA20 (264.2), 5% above SMA50 (250.9), high 272.9; RSI 55, MACD histogram −1.7 (improving from −2.0). Volume: 30 Oct rejection from 270 on 404k (supply), then 321 → 212 → 230k on the rebound (below the average of 259k) — the rebound is still without strong volume.
Why the pullback — 30 Oct drop of −4.7% on heavy volume (active supply), then a calm test of SMA50; technically profit-taking before 270.
Key support — 258–262 (SMA20, closes of 30 Oct–2 Nov), 252.6 / 250.5 (3–4 Nov lows), 250.9 (SMA50), 248.5 (last line of defense).
Entry strategy
- Aggressive: limit 258–262 (SMA20 retest).
- Confirmed: close > 270.3 (highest close of 29 Oct) on volume > 260k.
- Ideal signal: second up day with volume > average and close > 267.
Stop / invalidation — 248.5 (below SMA50 and the 3 Nov low of 250.5); a close below = test lower (the 8 Oct low of 252.5 is already violated).
Targets — T1 272.9 (50-session high) → R approx. 1.1; T2 285.0 (base extension 250–272.9) → R approx. 2.2.
Catalysts — 24 Nov earnings, Witcher 4 / DLC news, dividend payment (unverified).
Risks — (1) weak R to T1 (1.1); (2) rebound volume below average; (3) the 24 Nov result after a very high Q2 bar; (4) sensitivity to the US semiconductor/gaming sector (SOX −3.1% on 4 Nov); (5) 30 Oct rejection on heavy supply.
Verdict: WATCH (good structure, R to T1 insufficient — entry only in the lower half of the zone).
DNP — note outside the TOP 5
Q3 earnings today (5 Nov) — do not enter before the reaction. Noble Securities forecast (not consensus): revenue PLN 9,706 m (+10.8%), EBITDA PLN 742 m (margin 7.6% vs 8.6%), net profit PLN 451 m (approx. −6% y/y), LFL approx. +0.5% (Stockwatch); Biedronka in Q3 LFL −1.8% amid basket deflation of nearly 7% (DM BOŚ: slight negative for Dino). Actual results unverified (the report was not yet available in the sources at the time of the scan). Q2: revenue PLN 9,531 m (+10.5%), EBITDA PLN 665 m (+2.2%), net profit PLN 400 m (+0.6%) — margins under pressure. Technical setup good (38.34, above SMA20 and SMA50, pullback −3.3%), but fundamentals weakening → lowered rating, WAIT FOR CONFIRMATION after the report.
Watchlist for the next 1–3 weeks
- OPL (Orange Polska, 16.89) — new high +4.5% on 4 Nov, RSI 66, no pullback: wait for a retest of 16.0–16.3 (EMA20 15.94, SMA20 16.03) with rejection; stop below 14.8 (20-session low). Q3 report already published (26 Oct).
- PEO (Pekao, 261.20 through 3 Nov) — below SMA50 266.6, RSI 46: interest after a close > 267 on volume > 615k; stop 250; the 29 Oct report is behind us.
- PKO (113.62 through 3 Nov) — below SMA50 117.5, RSI 44; report 5 Nov (today): only after the reaction and a close > 118.4 on volume > 3.1 m.
- KTY (Kęty, 1,266) — narrow range 1,227–1,317, RSI 53, preliminary Q3 results in line with consensus (revenue approx. PLN 1.62 bn, EBITDA approx. PLN 325 m): close > 1,292 (16 Oct resistance) on volume > 20k; stop 1,227.
- ALR (Alior, 135.80 through 3 Nov) — at SMA50 (134.1), RSI 51, −4.4% from the high, results of 27 Oct behind us: close > 142.65 (50-session high) on volume > 480k or rejection from 126.8–134.
Rejected
- KGH (−27% from the 383.9 high, RSI 30, below SMA20 and SMA50; data through 3 Nov, the +4.9% intraday rebound on 4 Nov does not change the structure), JSW (−33%, RSI 23), CPS (−32%, RSI 24, gap down 29–30 Oct), XTB (−30%), KRU (−20%), ASB (−19%, below a series of lower highs) — long declines, not a healthy pullback.
- PKN (140.28, −13.7%, RSI 34, seven down sessions, below SMA50 152.6; close near the 20-session low) — oil pressure (Brent −8.7%) and investment uncertainty; no reversal pattern.
- PGE (15.50 through 3 Nov, −10.4% after a +43% parabolic run, below SMA20 16.45), 11B (113.2, RSI 23, below SMA50; the Microsoft/Game Pass deal is good, but the structure is broken), CBF, APR, MRB, GPW (−12%, below SMA50 or sideways with no edge), ENA (estimated Q3 results below expectations: EBITDA PLN 1,139 m vs forecast PLN 1,159 m).
- PKO / PEO — below SMA50 (see watchlist). PZU, DOM, MIL, TPE — no edge (sideways ranges, RSI 44–49); for DOM the ex-dividend date for PLN 7.35 is approaching (dividend day 30 Nov).
- SPL, ERSTEPL, BHW — no data (download failed), skipped.
Review of the previous scan (4 Nov, data through 3 Nov)
- LPP (limit 25,500–26,000, stop 24,950, T1 27,250): 4 Nov low 25,740, close 26,580. A limit in the upper part of the zone (≤ 26,000) may have filled; price +2.2% from 26,000, +4.2% from 25,500; T1 untouched (4 Nov high 26,580). Stop not threatened.
- MBK (limit 1,525–1,575, stop 1,470): no 4 Nov candle in the source — cannot be reviewed.
- DNP (WAIT, after the 5 Nov earnings): 4 Nov close 38.34 (+0.6% vs 38.10); entry before earnings was not planned. The low of 37.72 touched the upper part of the 37.3–37.9 zone.
- BFT (retest 5,700–5,800): no 4 Nov in the source — not reviewed; 3 Nov low 5,780 (upper edge of the zone), price 5,900.
- PCO (C, 47.2–48.0): no 4 Nov in the source — not reviewed.
- ACP (trigger close > 241): 4 Nov close 237.60, high 240.70 — trigger not fired; price +0.4% vs 236.6.
- CDR (trigger close > 262, stop 246, T1 272): 4 Nov close 264.00, high 264.5 — trigger fired; price +2.9% vs 256.5 on the scan day; stop untouched (low 252.6), T1 untouched.
- PGE (C): no 4 Nov in the source. Watchlist: ALE (retest 55.5–56.5) and BDX (705–716) — no 4 Nov; 3 Nov ALE low 57.26, BDX low 700.6 (BDX touched the bottom of the zone, closed at 734.6, the high of the day). KTY (> 1,292): close 1,266 — no. PKO/PEO: 4 Nov not in the data. Rejected: KGH (4 Nov intraday +4.9% per Forsal, data unconfirmed) and PKN (140.28, −2.75% — rejection was correct), CBF (190.10, +0.6%).
- Assessment: the 4 Nov scan was cautious; correct in its rejections (PKN) and triggers (CDR). The main review is limited by the lack of 4 Nov candles for 15 names.
Method and caveats
- Sources: biznesradar.pl (history, 50 sessions; fetched via WebFetch by subagents, after looking up addresses in WebSearch — without this the tool rejected the addresses). Global context: AP, CappNotes, Admirals, Parkiet, Forsal, finwire, money.pl (links in the Regime section). Earnings dates: Strefa Inwestorów (calendar), Parkiet/ESPI, company IR. Fundamentals: Parkiet, Strefa Inwestorów, xyz.pl, ppcg.
- Indicators (Python): SMA20/50, EMA20, Wilder RSI14, MACD 12/26/9, ATR14, 50-session high (on closes), RS vs WIG (20 sessions). SMA100 and SMA200 unavailable for GPW in free sources — not given. Weekly trend assessed from daily series (no weekly candles).
- Date consistency: 17 series with the last candle of 3 Nov (JSW: 2 Nov), despite repeated downloads with a different address — the source or buffer (15 min) did not yet have 4 Nov. Their prices do not reflect the 4 Nov rebound (banks +1.5–2%, Allegro approx. +2.4% intraday per Forsal) — treat entry levels for MBK, ALE, BFT, BDX, CAR, PCO as cautious, current prices may be higher.
- Fundamentals: refreshed for LPP, MBK, ALE, BFT, CDR, BDX (Q3: revenue PLN 2.83 bn +3.4%, net profit PLN 182 m +7%, backlog PLN 17.3 bn, net cash approx. PLN 1.8 bn — xyz.pl), CAR (H1: net profit PLN 490 m +42%, net debt/EBITDA 1.76 — Quartr). Margins, FCF, net debt/EBITDA and consensus were not verified for the others; Fund/30 of DNP, ACP, PCO estimated cautiously. Dino and PKO Q3 results (5 Nov) unavailable at the time of the scan.
- Earnings dates: verified: LPP 3 Dec, ALE 12 Nov, BFT 19 Nov, CAR 17 Nov, CDR 24 Nov, ACP 26 Nov, PZU 19 Nov, DOM 19 Nov, DNP 5 Nov, PKO 5 Nov. Published: MBK 28 Oct, BDX 27 Oct, OPL 26 Oct, KTY 26 Oct, PEO 29 Oct, ALR 27 Oct. PCO: a quarterly report in the calendar sense does not exist (fiscal year to September, trading updates) — unverified.
- Unverified/unavailable: position of S&P/Nasdaq relative to SMAs, LME copper, NBP table, date of final CPI. Ex-dates of LPP and BFT dividends approximated from the "dividend day" (levels adjusted for the full amount). Failed to download SPL, ERSTEPL, BHW — outside the scan.
- Universe of 33 companies + 4 indices — below the assumed 45–85 names; the narrowing results from download limitations (WebFetch required addresses from search results).
Screening exercise under the given framework, not investment advice.