GPW dividends — Thursday 5 November 2026

Data: closing prices as of 4 Nov 2026 (biznesradar.pl, 50 sessions per company), dividend history 2021–2026 (biznesradar.pl, strefainwestorow.pl), recommendation dates from ESPI (regulatory filing) announcements and IR pages (verified 5 Nov 2026). First report in this series.

Method and conclusion

Filter. From the payout history, 118 regular payers were selected (a dividend for at least 4 of the last 5 financial years, with no skipped latest season). Of these, 50 have 20-session turnover ≥ PLN 200 thousand. 20 companies went on to full verification in the announcements: 17 with an uptrend and turnover ≥ PLN 300 thousand, plus three additional ones (PZU, MOL, SNT). For each, I checked whether the dividend for the current cycle had already been announced and collected the historical dates of management board recommendations. Two companies dropped out because the next payout is already announced (Dom Development, NTT System), and four have no uptrend (GPW, PZU, MOL, Synektik).

Conclusion: today there is no "buy now" entry here. The nearest announcement window among companies in an uptrend is LPP (27 Jan–2 Feb 2027, in 12 weeks). The only window closer than 8 weeks belongs to Synektik (22 Dec 2026–15 Jan 2027), but its price is below the EMA20 and SMA50. Companies with November AGMs (VOT, TXT) are in a downtrend, and the others with a nearby window (IFI, FAB, NVT, EDI, ATP, DEL, INL, VIN) are too illiquid (daily turnover of PLN 9–145 thousand). The ranking below is therefore first and foremost an announcement calendar: whom to watch and when, not a shopping list.

Market. In the pool of 118 dividend payers only 37 companies (31%) trade above the SMA50, and the median distance from the 50-session high is −10%. The strong companies in the ranking are the exception, not the rule. The current regime of the whole GPW market is described in the Swing tab.

R:R. The five highest-rated (LPP, OPL, ACP, BDX, CAR) trade close to their highs, so the reward-to-risk ratio to T1 there is 0.7–1.0; better R only appears for KTY, Atal and Bank Handlowy (1.7–2.6), but with worse timing or dividend quality in points terms. Entry zones are set at a pullback to the EMA20 (not at the current price), with the stop below the SMA50 or the 20-session low. Class A would require a total ≥ 75, a window ≤ 60 days, an uptrend and R to T1 ≥ 1.5; nobody meets this today. The remaining companies with an uptrend are class B (wait for a pullback and for the window to approach).

What this report does not prove. The hypothesis "the price rises after a dividend announcement" has not been tested here against historical price reactions (free sources provide only the last 50 sessions). The "Settlement" section collects reference points from now on, so that this can be tested on real announcements.

Announcement pattern from ESPI (regulatory filing) announcements: LPP announces an interim dividend at the end of January (31 Jan 2024, 31 Jan 2025, 30 Jan 2026); ING (intention of about 75% of profit) and Orange in February together with Q4 results; ACP, Budimex, Erste Bank Polska, MOL and most large companies in the second half of March and in April together with the annual report; PZU, Playway, Voxel and banks that depend on KNF approval in May–June. The estimate from AGM dates that I used at the screening stage was off by as much as several weeks (including LPP, OPL, PLW, VOX, SNT, KTY), which is why the windows in the table come from the announcements.

Ranking

R is calculated from the middle of the entry zone. T1 = the 50-session high, or +6% from entry when the high is closer than 4%; T2 = T1 + 0.618 × (T1 − 20-session low). The windows are an estimate of the date of the management board's recommendation or announcement, not of the AGM. ⚠ next to the earnings date means quarterly results within 14 days. Price levels are not adjusted for the future dividend.

Without an uptrend (omitted from the table, to watch): GPW (total 76, window 20 Apr–5 May 2027, price 96.70, −12% from high), PZU (73, window 4–18 May 2027, EMA20 below SMA50), Synektik (65, window 22 Dec 2026–15 Jan 2027, price 325.60 below EMA20 and SMA50), MOL (62, window 15 Mar–6 Apr 2027).

TOP 3 right now

1. LPP — best timing (interim dividend announced around 31 January every year) combined with the best trend and the greatest liquidity; no entry today because R:R from the current 26,580 is poor, but it is the first company to watch.
2. Orange Polska — the recommendation comes in February after four consecutive years of dividend growth (0.35 → 0.61) and stable earnings; after a 12% rise in 20 sessions the price is overheated (RSI 66).
3. Asseco Poland — the only one of the TOP 5 in a classic pullback (price at the EMA20, −7% from the high, RSI 50), but the dividend for 2025 (PLN 13.05) was a one-off, so the new recommendation will be, by estimate, PLN 4–6; this is a risk of disappointment relative to the headline figure.

Detailed analysis of the TOP 5

LPP — LPP

Why it is interesting

• The most predictable calendar in the field: the first dividend announcement (an interim dividend plus an intention for a minimum annual dividend) came on 31 Jan 2024, 31 Jan 2025 and 30 Jan 2026, i.e. at the end of the financial year. 31 Jan 2027 is a Sunday, so the expected window is 27 Jan–2 Feb 2027.
• The dividend for financial year 2025/26 was PLN 900 (an interim dividend of PLN 400 paid 30 Apr 2026 plus a top-up of PLN 500, paid 30 Oct 2026); in earlier years PLN 450, 350, 430, 610 and 660.
• Earnings are growing: Q2 (May–July 2026) net profit PLN 768 million (+48% y/y), Q1 PLN 475 million.
• The greatest liquidity in the ranking (20-session turnover of about PLN 105 million per day).

Fundamentals: sales in Q1 +10.5% y/y, Q2 revenue PLN 6.6 billion, EBITDA PLN 1.7 billion. The next report (Q3) is on 3 Dec 2026. New dividend policy for 2027–2029 (June 2026): a recommendation of at least 50% of the company's net profit, with a total payout of no more than 70% of consolidated profit. For 2025/26, 100% of the standalone profit plus PLN 55.7 million from reserve capital was paid, so the new policy may mean a lower payout than PLN 900.

Technical structure: price 26,580, EMA20 26,259, SMA20 26,402, SMA50 24,311, 50-session high 27,240 (−2.4%), 20-session low 24,200, RSI 58, ratio of up-day to down-day volume 1.11. Uptrend (EMA20 > SMA50, price above both).

Why the move happened: the price rose 7% in 20 sessions; this is a move with the trend, not a correction (no single reason was established in the sources). There is no correction to buy today.

Key support: 25,740 (10-session low), 26,259 (EMA20), 24,311 (SMA50).

Entry strategy

• Aggressive: today at 26,580, but the stop at 24,068 means 9% risk, and R to T1 is 0.7.
• Conservative: a pullback to 25,997–26,260 on declining volume, or entry 4–6 weeks before the window (around mid-December) after the 3 Dec report has played out.
• Signal: a bounce off the EMA20 with a close above the previous day and volume above average.

Stop / invalidation: a close below 24,068 (SMA50 −1%), which would wipe out the trend structure.

Targets: T1 27,866 (+6% from entry; the 50-session high of 27,240 is closer than 4% from entry), T2 30,131 (0.618 extension). R: 0.7 / 1.7.

Catalysts: Q3 report (3 Dec 2026), interim dividend announcement (27 Jan–2 Feb 2027), winter sales season.

Risks

• The new, more conservative dividend policy may produce a lower amount than PLN 900.
• The price is near its high after a 7% rise, and R:R from today is poor.
• The price already includes the good Q2 result; a disappointment in the 3 Dec report would cut the window short before the announcement.
• The ex-dividend date knocks the price down by the payout amount; the exit plan must fall before the ex-date.
• The exact announcement date is unknown (case in point: Sunday 31 Jan → 29 Jan or 1 Feb).

Verdict: GOOD SETUP (only as a calendar; entry only after a pullback).

OPL — Orange Polska

Why it is interesting

• The dividend recommendation always comes out with the preliminary annual results: 15 Feb 2023, 14 Feb 2024, 12 Feb 2025, 18 Feb 2026. The window for 2027 is 10–24 Feb 2027.
• Four years of growth: 0.35 → 0.48 → 0.53 → 0.61 PLN.
• Q3 2026: net profit PLN 328 million (PAP consensus PLN 314.8 million), EBITDAaL PLN 1.04 billion (+15.6%).
• Liquid (turnover of about PLN 22 million per day), defensive sector.

Fundamentals: for 2025, revenue PLN 13.1 billion, EBITDAaL PLN 3.47 billion, net profit PLN 762 million (−17% y/y). The "Lead the Future" strategy: PLN 0.53 as the base level through 2028; after the latest recommendation strefainwestorow.pl gives PLN 0.61 as the new base level, while other sources still say PLN 0.53. The discrepancy was not resolved in ESPI.

Technical structure: price 16.89, EMA20 15.94, SMA50 14.75, high 17.02 (−0.7%), RSI 66, +11.7% in 20 sessions, volume ratio 1.16. Uptrend, but the price is stretched 6% above the EMA20.

Why the move happened: a rise of 11.7% in 20 sessions, including after the Q3 results of 26 Oct that beat the consensus; this is an impulse, not a correction.

Key support: 15.94 (EMA20), 14.80 (20-session low), 14.75 (SMA50).

Entry strategy

• Aggressive: not recommended at RSI 66.
• Conservative: a pullback to 15.78–16.09, ideally on declining volume.
• Signal: a close above the previous day after a pullback to the EMA20.

Stop / invalidation: a close below 14.60 (SMA50 −1%).

Targets: T1 17.02 (50-session high), T2 18.38. R: 0.8 / 1.8 (from the middle of the 15.94 zone).

Catalysts: preliminary annual results with the recommendation (around 10–24 Feb 2027), annual report on 5 Mar 2027.

Risks

• The payout for 2025 (PLN 800.5 million) exceeded consolidated profit (PLN 762 million); an increase for 2026 is not a given.
• Discrepancy between sources on the base level (PLN 0.53 or 0.61).
• The price is stretched after a 12% rise; a pullback to the entry zone means a drop of about 5%.
• The window falls in February, 3 months from now; this is not a swing trade but a position to plan.

Verdict: WATCH.

ACP — Asseco Poland

Why it is interesting

• Regular dates: recommendation on 23 Mar 2021, 19 Apr 2023, 27 Mar 2024, 27 Mar 2025, 31 Mar 2026 (always with the annual report). Window 23 Mar–2 Apr 2027.
• Dividends: 3.11 → 3.50 → 3.66 → 3.94 PLN, then PLN 13.05 for 2025 (a one-off effect from the sale of Sapiens).
• Results: Q2 2026 net profit PLN 201 million versus a consensus of PLN 185 million.
• The only company in the TOP 5 in a classic pullback.

Fundamentals: the policy assumes an intention to pay out more than 50% of the company's net profit; no interim dividends in its history. Profit for 2025 excluding Sapiens would have given about PLN 6.07 per share, not PLN 13.05. It reports Q3 2026 on 26 Nov 2026. A new CEO (Rafał Kozłowski) from 2027.

Technical structure: price 237.60, EMA20 238.64, SMA50 231.28, 50-session high 256.20 (−7.3%), 20-session low 216.50, RSI 50, +8.4% in 20 sessions. Uptrend with a pullback to the EMA20.

Why the correction happened: the price pulled back 7% from the high of 256.2; the cause was not established in the sources, and the trend structure is intact (the 20-session low of 216.5 remains far below).

Key support: 238.64 (EMA20), 231.28 (SMA50), 232.20 (10-session low).

Entry strategy

• Aggressive: the 235.22–238.64 zone (today).
• Conservative: a close above 242 with volume above average.
• Signal: a bounce off the EMA20 and a close above the previous day.

Stop / invalidation: 215.42 (20-session low −0.5%), 9% below entry. The wide stop follows from the structure; a tighter one would be artificial.

Targets: T1 256.20 (high), T2 280.73. R: 0.9 / 2.0.

Catalysts: Q3 results on 26 Nov 2026, annual report and recommendation (23 Mar–2 Apr 2027).

Risks

• The expected dividend (PLN 4–6) is clearly lower than the headline PLN 13.05; the year-on-year comparison will look bad.
• Change of CEO from 2027.
• The window is 4.5 months away; until then the price will trade on results.
• The stop 9% below entry with R to T1 below 1.

Verdict: WATCH.

BDX — Budimex

Why it is interesting

• The most regular recommendations, in the week of the annual report: 24 Mar 2022, 30 Mar 2023, 9 Apr 2024, 10 Apr 2025, 26 Mar 2026. Window 24 Mar–12 Apr 2027.
• Dividends: 17.99 → 35.69 → 25.43 → 32.42 PLN.
• The policy aims for 100% of net profit; the strategy of 28 Oct 2026 announces its continuation.
• Q3 2026 (27 Oct): net profit PLN 182.4 million (+7% y/y).

Fundamentals: 9M net profit PLN 432 million versus PLN 441 million a year earlier; net cash fell from over PLN 2.6 billion to about PLN 1.8 billion. The 100% policy covers financial years 2022–2026, so FY2026 is the last year covered by the announcement.

Technical structure: price 753.00 (50-session high 753.40), EMA20 712.98, SMA50 703.50, low 674.00, RSI 63.7, +9.6% in 20 sessions, volume ratio 1.10. Uptrend, with the price stretched 5.6% above the EMA20.

Why the move happened: a rise of 9.6% in 20 sessions to the 50-session high, including after the Q3 results of 27 Oct; the price is standing at its high.

Key support: 713 (EMA20), 704 (SMA50), 674 (20-session low).

Entry strategy

• Aggressive: not at the high.
• Conservative: a pullback to 705.85–720.11.
• Signal: a close above the previous day after a test of the EMA20, or a close above 753.40 on volume.

Stop / invalidation: 670.63 (below the 674 low).

Targets: T1 753.40, T2 802.47. R: 1.0 / 2.1.

Catalysts: annual report for 2026 with the recommendation (24 Mar–12 Apr 2027), order backlog, a possible new dividend policy.

Risks

• The fall in net cash of about PLN 0.8 billion this year limits the capacity to pay out 100%.
• The 100% policy expires after FY2026.
• The construction sector is sensitive to the pace of infrastructure spending.
• The price is at its high; 9M profit is lower y/y.

Verdict: WATCH.

CAR — Inter Cars

Why it is interesting

• The recommendation always comes right after the annual report: 27 Apr 2021, 29 Apr 2022, 16 May 2023, 26 Apr 2024, 5 May 2025, 29 Apr 2026. Window 26 Apr–16 May 2027.
• A dividend of PLN 1.42 in four of the last six years (PLN 0.71 in 2022–2023).
• The strongest trend in the field: an all-time high at 1,092, up-day volume 1.5 times higher than down-day volume, +15.7% in 20 sessions.

Fundamentals: H1 2026 revenue PLN 11.41 billion (+12.8%), net profit PLN 490.5 million; FY2025 net profit about PLN 800 million (+11%), net debt/EBITDA about 2.2. The 2023–2025 policy (up to 60% of profit) has expired and no new one was found. High capex (warehouse near Poznań).

Technical structure: price 1,092 (50-session high), EMA20 1,023, SMA50 972, 20-session low 946, RSI 71. Uptrend, price 6.7% above the EMA20.

Why the move happened: momentum (+15.7% in 20 sessions) ahead of the Q3 results on 17 Nov; this is not a correction.

Key support: 1,023 (EMA20), 994 (10-session low), 972 (SMA50).

Entry strategy

• Aggressive: not recommended at RSI 71.
• Conservative: a pullback to 1,013–1,033 after the results of 17 Nov.
• Signal: a close above the previous day after a pullback to the EMA20.

Stop / invalidation: 941 (below the 946 low).

Targets: T1 1,092, T2 1,182. R: 0.8 / 1.9.

Catalysts: Q3 results (⚠ 17 Nov 2026), annual report and recommendation (26 Apr–16 May 2027), a new dividend policy.

Risks

• The window is more than half a year away; the dividend is a less important catalyst here than the results.
• RSI 71 and +15.7% in a month: an overheated price.
• The dividend policy has expired.
• Leverage of 2.2 times EBITDA and high capex.
• Quarterly report within 14 days.

Verdict: WAIT FOR CONFIRMATION.

Announcement window calendar (next 9 months)

Rejected

Settlement of the previous scan

This is the first report, so there is nothing to settle. Reference points (close of 4 Nov 2026) for subsequent settlements: LPP 26,580, OPL 16.89, ACP 237.60, BDX 753.00, CAR 1,092, KTY 1,266, 1AT 60.60, BHW 123.40, ING 490.80, PLW 253.00, EBP 778.40, MBR 414.50, VOX 154.20, WAS 7.40. In subsequent reports I record the price change since this date and every dividend announcement (date, amount, price reaction on the day and after 5 sessions).

Method and caveats

• The announcement windows are based on historical recommendation dates from ESPI and IR pages. This is a pattern, not an announcement; a company may announce earlier, later or differently (e.g. LPP on Sunday 31 Jan 2027).
• Price data come from the last 50 sessions on biznesradar (SMA100/SMA200 unavailable). Volume is the number of shares; turnover in PLN was calculated as volume × price.
• The dividend history from biznesradar was corrected against the announcements: the errors concerned, among others, LPP (the interim dividend date read as the AGM), DOM and VOX (dates of the management board announcement read as the AGM), MOL (dates and currency). For MOL the dividend is in HUF.
• Recommendation dates without confirmation in ESPI (bankier.pl and PAP were unavailable): Atal (FY2024–2025), Mo-BRUK (FY2022–2024), Wasko (most years), PZU 2024.
• The scoring (Div/50 + Tech/50) is a heuristic defined in METHOD-DYWIDENDY.md and divrank.py; the stability and condition scores (0–10 and 0–5 respectively) are my own judgements, stored in data/dividends/judgement.json.
• Dividend tax, transaction costs and spreads in less liquid companies are not taken into account.
• The hypothesis of a price rise after the announcement is not tested here.

Screening exercise under the given framework, not investment advice.